Evgenia Vanadzina Gasum

Evgenia Vanadzina

Portfolio Manager
evgenia.vanadzina@gasum.com
tel. +358401801066

01.12.2020  

Maritime market update: attention to OPEC+ talks

Risavika LNG front month has increased by 4.8 % week on week reaching 24.49 EUR/MWh. The upside is mostly driven by the weather forecast, which showed temperatures close to seasonal norms in the beginning of December. Colder outlook increase demand for gas, while supply side remains quite stable for the coming week, as Norwegian strike risk has been resolved over the weekend.

Last week was quite bullish for oil prices due to vaccine sentiment and OPEC+ intention to keep the current supply cuts for Q1 2021. Oil products prices has gone up 5.5-8.3 % during last week. Fuel oil 3.5 front month has increased by 5.5 % to 273.35 USD/t, low sulfur oil (MFO 0.5) has increased by 7 % and closed at 347.33 USD/t, and  MGO 0.1 has increased by 8.3 %week on week and closed at 386.14 USD/t.

The 1st of December ministerial assembly of the OPEC+ coalition has been rescheduled to 3rd of December, after the group ended its meeting on Monday without an agreement on oil production policy for the beginning of 2021. OPEC delegates said the group's sentiment had been building towards extending the existing collective 7.7 million BBL/D production cuts by another three months. Failure to reach an agreement could add 1.9 million BBL/D of oil supply to the already oversupplied market, pressuring the prices. Meantime, oil demand is still very weak and likely to remain so until covid-19 vaccine rollout.

 

Front Month Price index

LNG Risavika*

LBG blend

Risavika**

FO 3.5 FOB Rdam

MFO 0.5 FOB Rdam

MGO 0.1 FOB ARA

ULSD FOB ARA

Unit

24.49

27.49

19.60

23.85

26.51

28.03

EUR/MWh

414.79

465.61

273.35

347.33

386.14

390.99

USD/t

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LNG Risavika - LNG FOB Risavika 

LBG Risavika 10 % - 10 % blend of Liquified Biogas

FO 3.5 FOB Rdam – European 3.5% Fuel Oil Barges FOB Rdam (Platts) Futures Quotes

MFO 0.5 FOB Rdam - European FOB Rdam Marine Fuel 0.5% Barges (Platts) Futures Quotes

MGO 0.1 FOB ARA - Gasoil 0.1% Barges FOB ARA (Platts) Futures Quotes

ULSD FOB ARA - European Diesel 10 ppm Barges FOB ARA (Platts) Futures Quotes

 

 

Source: CME Group, Gasum, Argus Media

*An estimate for LNG FOB Risavika 

** An estimate for 10 % LBG blend FOB Risavika