Evgenia Vanadzina Gasum

Evgenia Vanadzina

Analyst
evgenia.vanadzina@gasum.com
tel. +358401801066

15.12.2020  

Maritime market update: market is back to demand recovery uncertainty

Risavika LNG front month has increased by 9.1 % week on week to 26.50 EUR/MWh on colder January outlook. In addition, higher demand for LNG in Asia tightens LNG supply to Europe providing additional support for gas prices in front month.

Low sulfur oil products has gained 2-2.9 % during last week, while fuel oil 3.5 front month has slightly dropped by 0.1 % to 274.70 USD/t. Low sulfur marine fuel oil (MFO 0.5) has increased by 2 % and closed at 355.68 USD/t, and MGO 0.1 has increased by 2.9 % week on week and closed at 406.85 USD/t.

Despite the recent rally of benchmark oil prices on vaccine rollout news, demand recovery is still uncertain as covid-19 infection rates continued to rise sharply in Europe. Many countries are considering more stringent restrictions over the Christmas holidays, which will dent fuel demand in the near term. OPEC on Monday pared its forecast for a recovery in oil demand in 2021 by 350 000 barrels per day, due to the persistent impact of the pandemic, but said a rapid rollout of vaccines in major economies could provide potential upside for next year’s growth forecast.

 

Front Month Price index

LNG Risavika*

LBG blend

Risavika**

FO 3.5 FOB Rdam

MFO 0.5 FOB Rdam

MGO 0.1 FOB ARA

ULSD FOB ARA

Unit

26.50

29.50

19.69

24.42

27.93

29.56

EUR/MWh

448.93

499.75

274.70

355.68

406.85

412.23

USD/t

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LNG Risavika - LNG FOB Risavika 

LBG Risavika 10 % - 10 % blend of Liquified Biogas

FO 3.5 FOB Rdam – European 3.5% Fuel Oil Barges FOB Rdam (Platts) Futures Quotes

MFO 0.5 FOB Rdam - European FOB Rdam Marine Fuel 0.5% Barges (Platts) Futures Quotes

MGO 0.1 FOB ARA - Gasoil 0.1% Barges FOB ARA (Platts) Futures Quotes

ULSD FOB ARA - European Diesel 10 ppm Barges FOB ARA (Platts) Futures Quotes

 

Source: CME Group, Gasum, Reuters

*An estimate for LNG FOB Risavika 

** An estimate for 10 % LBG blend FOB Risavika