Evgenia Vanadzina Gasum

Evgenia Vanadzina

Analyst
evgenia.vanadzina@gasum.com
tel. +358401801066

13.10.2020  

Maritime market update: Sibcon concluded on need for low-carbon marine fuel before 2050

Risavika LNG front month has increased by 1.6% week on week following European gas market prices. Natural gas supply to Europe remains stable and gas storages are full, thus, demand increase can be easily covered in the medium term.

Oil prices has been supported last week due to Hurracaine Delta, which hit the US Gulf of Mexico, leading to 1.5 million barrels of daily output to stop. Following the oil prices, fuel oil 3.5 has gained 9.8 % to 235.96 USD/t. Low sulfur oil (MFO 0.5) has increased by 8.4 % and traded at 305.7 USD/t and MGO 0.1 has gained 8.8 % week on week and reached 341.11 USD/t.

Sibcon, Singapore International Bunkering Conference, participants agreed that the global marine industry will face pressure to come up with low-carbon fuels much earlier than 2050. As vessels’ lifespan is about 40 years, the industry is only one generation of vessels away from 2050, when the shipping carbon emissions should be lowered by at least 50 % from 2008 levels. Among the possible solutions are LNG, biofuels, hydrogen, methanol and ammonia. For a fuel to be considered as a marine fuel, it needs to be cost-effective, widely available, scalable and have a high energy density. LNG is the most advanced in terms of availability and cost, yet global infrastructure remains limited and it is seen mostly as a transition fuel, given its carbon emissions are only 20-25 % less than diesel.

 

LNG Risavika - LNG FOB Risavika 

LBG Risavika 10 % - 10 % blend of Liquified Biogas

FO 3.5 FOB Rdam – European 3.5% Fuel Oil Barges FOB Rdam (Platts) Futures Quotes

MFO 0.5 FOB Rdam - European FOB Rdam Marine Fuel 0.5% Barges (Platts) Futures Quotes

MGO 0.1 FOB ARA - Gasoil 0.1% Barges FOB ARA (Platts) Futures Quotes

ULSD FOB ARA - European Diesel 10 ppm Barges FOB ARA (Platts) Futures Quotes

 

Front Month Price index

LNG Risavika*

LBG blend

Risavika**

FO 3.5 FOB Rdam

MFO 0.5 FOB Rdam

MGO 0.1 FOB ARA

ULSD FOB ARA

Unit

23.78

26.78

16.92

20.99

23.42

25.00

EUR/MWh

402.76

453.58

235.96

305.70

341.11

348.73

USD/t

 Price index 12.10.2020.png

Source: CME Group, Gasum, Argus Media

*An estimate for LNG FOB Risavika 

** An estimate for 10 % LBG blend FOB Risavika