Evgenia Vanadzina Gasum

Evgenia Vanadzina

Portfolio Manager
evgenia.vanadzina@gasum.com
tel. +358401801066

04.05.2021  

Maritime market update: a strong upside for LNG and sideways oil products prices

Risavika LNG has increased by considerable 9.7 % to 33.29 EUR/MWh from last week as month has changed. Below seasonal norm temperatures, rally of external fuels and carbon price were main drivers for the European gas prices increase for June. Looking ahead, gas demand from storages is projected to be significant this injection season. To reach full storages by the start of the winter season, injection rate should be at least 60 % higher than seen last summer, which will impact summer gas prices.

Oil products gained slightly for June contracts compared to the previous month, the market is more optimistic with US refineries ramping up production. Inventory data have also provided positive sentiment, the independently held inventories of oil products in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading and storage hub have fallen to their lowest since April 2020. Fuel oil stocks fell by more than any other product with increase in bunkering demand within the ARA area as ships continued to arrive after being stuck behind the Ever Given in late March. However, covid-19 surge in India keeps benchmark crude oil prices in check. Fuel oil 3.5 has increased by 1.2 % and settled at 376.23 USD/t for June contracts. Low sulphur fuel oil (MFO 0.5) increased by 0.8 % and was at 467.42 USD/t, and marine gasoil (MGO 0.1) gained 1.9 % and settled at 525.10 EUR/MWh.

 

Front Month Price index

LNG Risavika*

LBG blend

Risavika**

FO 3.5 FOB Rdam

MFO 0.5 FOB Rdam

MGO 0.1 FOB ARA

ULSD FOB ARA

Unit

33.29

36.29

26.33

32.09

36.05

38.35

EUR/MWh

563.87

614.69

367.23

467.42

525.10

534.94

USD/t

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LNG Risavika - LNG FOB Risavika 

LBG Risavika 10 % - 10 % blend of Liquified Biogas

FO 3.5 FOB Rdam – European 3.5% Fuel Oil Barges FOB Rdam (Platts) Futures Quotes

MFO 0.5 FOB Rdam - European FOB Rdam Marine Fuel 0.5% Barges (Platts) Futures Quotes

MGO 0.1 FOB ARA - Gasoil 0.1% Barges FOB ARA (Platts) Futures Quotes

ULSD FOB ARA - European Diesel 10 ppm Barges FOB ARA (Platts) Futures Quotes

 

Source: CME Group, Gasum, Insights Global

*An estimate for LNG FOB Risavika 

** An estimate for 10 % LBG blend FOB Risavika