Evgenia Vanadzina Gasum

Evgenia Vanadzina

Analyst
evgenia.vanadzina@gasum.com
tel. +358401801066

13.04.2021  

Maritime market update: European gas prices remain supported by storage demand.

Risavika LNG dropped 0.8 % week on week and settled at 28.94 EUR/MWh for May contracts. Bullish sentiment for the European gas prices has eased with weather forecast for the end of April is coming closer to seasonal norms. However, the demand for storage injections keeps prices at high levels. The European natural gas storage inventories started injection season with below the 5-year average levels, meaning that additional 47.3 TWh of natural gas should be injected to the storage during the season. The situation creates a demand for LNG, which will be a subject to a spread between natural gas prices in Asia and Europe this summer.

Fuel oil 3.5 has slightly dropped as the inventories showed a considerable draw, 0.4 % reduction week on week and settled at 336.53 USD/t for May contracts. In contrast, low sulfur fuel oil (MFO 0.5) gained  2.6 % and was at 446.86 USD/t, and marine gasoil  (MGO 0.1) gained 0.8 % and settled at 494.33 EUR/MWh. Development of oil product prices will mostly depend on inventory data, while supply increase for May may add bearish sentiment. Total stocks fell over the past week, according to the latest data from consultancy Insights Global. This is the lowest recorded since the week to 4 December. Stringent controls on the movement of people across Europe have reduced regional transport fuel demand, creating arbitrage opportunities for buyers elsewhere.

 

 

Front Month Price index

LNG Risavika*

LBG blend

Risavika**

FO 3.5 FOB Rdam

MFO 0.5 FOB Rdam

MGO 0.1 FOB ARA

ULSD FOB ARA

Unit

28.94

31.94

24.13

30.68

33.94

36.24

EUR/MWh

490.26

541.08

336.53

446.86

494.33

505.42

USD/t

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LNG Risavika - LNG FOB Risavika 

LBG Risavika 10 % - 10 % blend of Liquified Biogas

FO 3.5 FOB Rdam – European 3.5% Fuel Oil Barges FOB Rdam (Platts) Futures Quotes

MFO 0.5 FOB Rdam - European FOB Rdam Marine Fuel 0.5% Barges (Platts) Futures Quotes

MGO 0.1 FOB ARA - Gasoil 0.1% Barges FOB ARA (Platts) Futures Quotes

ULSD FOB ARA - European Diesel 10 ppm Barges FOB ARA (Platts) Futures Quotes

 

Source: CME Group, Gasum, Natural Gas Intelligence, Insights Global

*An estimate for LNG FOB Risavika 

** An estimate for 10 % LBG blend FOB Risavika