Evgenia Vanadzina Gasum

Evgenia Vanadzina

Analyst
evgenia.vanadzina@gasum.com
tel. +358401801066

12.01.2021  

Maritime market update: Global natural gas liquefaction capacity is expected to nearly double by 2040

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Risavika LNG front month reached 30.12 EUR/MWh. European gas prices continued a strong upside on colder outlook for the front month, lower Russian supplies through Ukraine and fewer LNG arrival to Europe. Strong consumer demand in Asia, a severe shortage of prompt LNG supplies and spot tanker availability have combined to send northeast Asian spot LNG prices to an all-time high.

Oil products has gained 5 -11 % during last week on OPEC+ oil cuts continuation and Saudi Arabia’s commitment to cut 1 million BBL/D from February 2021. The highest gain was for fuel oil 3.5, it closed at 318.57 USD/t for front month contracts gaining 11.2% week-on-week. Low sulfur oil (MFO 0.5) has increased by 7.7 % and closed at 400.3 USD/t, and MGO 0.1 has increased by 5.8 % week on week and closed at 440.53 USD/t.

Rystad Energy reported that despite the lockdowns, global LNG imports grew 3% to 363 million tons (mt) in 2020, mainly driven by Asian demand which grew 4 % year-on-year. Liquefaction capacity grew 5% in 2020, reaching 464 million tons per annum (tpa), as new plants started operations mainly in the US. Furthermore, Rystad Energy forecasts that the world’s LNG production is expected to reach 672 mt in 2040, a 79% growth from 2020 numbers, while global liquefaction capacity is expected to nearly double by 2040, reaching a total of 886 million tpa, a 91% increase from 2020. This will allow to have higher availability of LNG for bunkering in future.

 

Front Month Price index

LNG Risavika*

LBG blend

Risavika**

FO 3.5 FOB Rdam

MFO 0.5 FOB Rdam

MGO 0.1 FOB ARA

ULSD FOB ARA

Unit

30.12

33.12

22.84

27.48

30.25

32.05

EUR/MWh

510.25

561.07

318.57

400.30

440.53

447.03

USD/t

LNG Risavika - LNG FOB Risavika 

LBG Risavika 10 % - 10 % blend of Liquified Biogas

FO 3.5 FOB Rdam – European 3.5% Fuel Oil Barges FOB Rdam (Platts) Futures Quotes

MFO 0.5 FOB Rdam - European FOB Rdam Marine Fuel 0.5% Barges (Platts) Futures Quotes

MGO 0.1 FOB ARA - Gasoil 0.1% Barges FOB ARA (Platts) Futures Quotes

ULSD FOB ARA - European Diesel 10 ppm Barges FOB ARA (Platts) Futures Quotes

 

Source: CME Group, Gasum, Argus Media, Rystad Energy

*An estimate for LNG FOB Risavika 

** An estimate for 10 % LBG blend FOB Risavika