Evgenia Vanadzina Gasum

Evgenia Vanadzina

Portfolio Manager
evgenia.vanadzina@gasum.com
tel. +358401801066

19.05.2021  

Maritime market update: IEA envisages an increase in use of LNG and biofuels in maritime sector for Net Zero 2050

Risavika LNG has further increased by 7.8 % to 36.83 EUR/MWh week on week following European gas hubs upward trend. Gas prices in Europe were rallying on back of lower LNG sendouts and lower Norwegian flows, while temperatures remain below seasonal norms and storage levels are still at their lowest. The outlook for gas prices is bullish for the coming week.

Oil products were quite stable last week on resilient crude benchmark prices, Indian bearish sentiment was offset by Colonial pipeline cyberattack. Fuel oil 3.5 (FO 3.5) and low sulphur oil (MFO 0.5) have decreased by 1.8 % and 0.7 % respectively, while marine gasoil gained 0.9 % for June contracts. The outlook for oil product prices is also bullish for the week on demand recovery as many countries are easing travel restrictions.

Looking ahead, LNG and biofuels to play an important role in decarbonizing maritime shipping, according to newly released International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Net Zero by 2050 report. Demand for LNG will increase until 2040, while sustainable biofuels will provide almost 20 % of total shipping energy needs in 2050. Maritime shipping was responsible for around 830 Mt CO2 emissions worldwide in 2020, which is around 2.5% of total energy sector emissions. In IEA’s Net Zero Emission scenario, those emissions would decline at 6 % annual rate and reach 120 Mt CO2 in 2050.

 

Front Month Price index

LNG Risavika*

LBG blend

Risavika**

FO 3.5 FOB Rdam

MFO 0.5 FOB Rdam

MGO 0.1 FOB ARA

ULSD FOB ARA

Unit

36.83

39.83

26.17

32.57

37.60

39.92

EUR/MWh

623.92

674.74

364.98

474.40

547.60

556.85

USD/t

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LNG Risavika - LNG FOB Risavika 

LBG Risavika 10 % - 10 % blend of Liquified Biogas

FO 3.5 FOB Rdam – European 3.5% Fuel Oil Barges FOB Rdam (Platts) Futures Quotes

MFO 0.5 FOB Rdam - European FOB Rdam Marine Fuel 0.5% Barges (Platts) Futures Quotes

MGO 0.1 FOB ARA - Gasoil 0.1% Barges FOB ARA (Platts) Futures Quotes

ULSD FOB ARA - European Diesel 10 ppm Barges FOB ARA (Platts) Futures Quotes

 

Source: CME Group, Gasum, IEA

*An estimate for LNG FOB Risavika 

** An estimate for 10 % LBG blend FOB Risavika