Evgenia Vanadzina Gasum

Evgenia Vanadzina

Portfolio Manager
evgenia.vanadzina@gasum.com
tel. +358401801066

23.03.2021  

Maritime market update: LNG and oil products prices on decline

Risavika LNG dropped 4.3 % week on week and reached 27.27 EUR/MWh for April index. Gas prices in Europe have come down from last week on milder weather forecast for the start of April. Looking further ahead, gas prices should decline amid less consumption due to lower heating demand. However, the price would highly depend on the supply availability, especially LNG cargo arrivals to European terminals.

The third wave of coronavirus in Europe raises uncertainty about oil demand in the region, while supply remains abundant. Fuel oil 3.5 has decreased 6.2 % and closed at 359.74 USD/t for front month contracts, low sulfur oil (MFO 0.5) has dropped 8.3 % and was at 455.41 USD/t, and marine gasoil  (MGO 0.1) has decreased by 8.4 week on week and closed at 501.54 USD/t despite the inventory draw. Many European countries have extended restrictions in place to combat rising coronavirus cases. Measures limiting non-essential travel and reducing movement are likely to truncate fuel demand and affect short-term economic performance. With oil products still at high levels at independently-held inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub, the restriction in movements can further increase inventory levels and contribute to oil products price decrease.

 

Front Month Price index

LNG Risavika*

LBG blend

Risavika**

FO 3.5 FOB Rdam

MFO 0.5 FOB Rdam

MGO 0.1 FOB ARA

ULSD FOB ARA

Unit

27.27

30.27

25.79

31.27

34.43

36.60

EUR/MWh

461.89

512.71

359.74

455.41

501.54

510.54

USD/t

Price index 23.3.2021.png

 

LNG Risavika - LNG FOB Risavika 

LBG Risavika 10 % - 10 % blend of Liquified Biogas

FO 3.5 FOB Rdam – European 3.5% Fuel Oil Barges FOB Rdam (Platts) Futures Quotes

MFO 0.5 FOB Rdam - European FOB Rdam Marine Fuel 0.5% Barges (Platts) Futures Quotes

MGO 0.1 FOB ARA - Gasoil 0.1% Barges FOB ARA (Platts) Futures Quotes

ULSD FOB ARA - European Diesel 10 ppm Barges FOB ARA (Platts) Futures Quotes

 

Source: CME Group, Gasum, Argus Media, Insights Global

*An estimate for LNG FOB Risavika 

** An estimate for 10 % LBG blend FOB Risavika