Evgenia Vanadzina Gasum

Evgenia Vanadzina

Portfolio Manager
evgenia.vanadzina@gasum.com
tel. +358401801066

30.03.2021  

Maritime market update: LNG influx vs OPEC cuts

Risavika LNG gained 5 % week on week, reaching 28.7 EUR/MWh for April index. The sentiment for European gas prices has changed to a bullish one due lower than average temperature forecast in April and a start of inventory injection season. However, European LNG supply has been sharply recovering through March, over 50% on the month, and climbed back to above last year levels. The recovery has been largely driven by northwest Europe’s liquid hubs. The supply side has been dominated by Qatar, Russia, and US. European LNG influx can add bearish sentiment to future gas prices in coming months.

Oil product prices were mostly sideways last week despite crude prices increase due to congestion in the Suez Canal. Fuel oil 3.5 has decreased 1.3 % and closed at 355.02 USD/t for front month contracts, low sulfur oil (MFO 0.5) has dropped 0.9 % and was at 451.35 USD/t, and marine gasoil (MGO 0.1) stayed the same level as a week before. With Suez congestion issue resolved, all attention is on OPEC + meeting this week. If OPEC + decides to roll over the current oil production cuts, the oil products prices are most likely to gain support for front month contracts. However, the outcome will be highly dependent on the demand for oil products, which is currently weak due to prolonged travel restrictions.

 

Front Month Price index

LNG Risavika*

LBG blend

Risavika**

FO 3.5 FOB Rdam

MFO 0.5 FOB Rdam

MGO 0.1 FOB ARA

ULSD FOB ARA

Unit

28.70

31.70

25.45

30.99

34.44

36.60

EUR/MWh

486.20

537.02

355.02

451.35

501.68

510.49

USD/t

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LNG Risavika - LNG FOB Risavika 

LBG Risavika 10 % - 10 % blend of Liquified Biogas

FO 3.5 FOB Rdam – European 3.5% Fuel Oil Barges FOB Rdam (Platts) Futures Quotes

MFO 0.5 FOB Rdam - European FOB Rdam Marine Fuel 0.5% Barges (Platts) Futures Quotes

MGO 0.1 FOB ARA - Gasoil 0.1% Barges FOB ARA (Platts) Futures Quotes

ULSD FOB ARA - European Diesel 10 ppm Barges FOB ARA (Platts) Futures Quotes

 

Source: CME Group, Gasum, European LNG Hub, S&P Global Platts

*An estimate for LNG FOB Risavika 

** An estimate for 10 % LBG blend FOB Risavika