Evgenia Vanadzina Gasum

Evgenia Vanadzina

Portfolio Manager
evgenia.vanadzina@gasum.com
tel. +358401801066

01.12.2021

Maritime market update: volatility to continue

Risavika LNG index has increased to 104.8 EUR/MWh gaining 10 % week on week as Europe anticipates a cold start of December, higher withdrawals from the storage, while gas supply is tight. The day-ahead capacity auctions for Ukrainian pipelines and at Germany’s Mallnow compressor station will provide a strong signal on price development in December. Russian Gazprom has said it aims to keep refilling European storage sites until the end of December, however, it hasn’t used short-term auctions to ship more fuel. The market is likely to see day ahead prices volatility this month as the price will be defined by weather and short-term capacity bookings.

Benchmark oil prices dropped for the fifth consecutive week and were just above 71 USD/BBL mark as the market anticipates impact of new covid variant on oil demand recovery, while release of strategic reserves could have impact in the first quarter of 2021 oversupplying the market.  Oil product prices were dropping following the benchmarks. Fuel oil 3.5 (FO 3.5) price was down 7.3 % to 386.53 USD/t, low sulphur oil (MFO 0.5) dropped 7 % to 504.33 USD/t and marine gasoil (MGO 0.1) lower by 7.6 % to 609.8 USD/t week on week.

 

 

Front Month Price index

LNG Risavika*

LBG blend

Risavika**

FO 3.5 FOB Rdam

MFO 0.5 FOB Rdam

MGO 0.1 FOB ARA

ULSD FOB ARA

Unit

104.80

107.80

27.71

34.63

41.87

43.24

EUR/MWh

1775.37

1826.20

386.53

504.33

609.80

603.08

USD/t

imagevbpwv.png

 

LNG Risavika - LNG FOB Risavika 

LBG Risavika 10 % - 10 % blend of Liquified Biogas

FO 3.5 FOB Rdam – European 3.5% Fuel Oil Barges FOB Rdam (Platts) Futures Quotes

MFO 0.5 FOB Rdam - European FOB Rdam Marine Fuel 0.5% Barges (Platts) Futures Quotes

MGO 0.1 FOB ARA - Gasoil 0.1% Barges FOB ARA (Platts) Futures Quotes

ULSD FOB ARA - European Diesel 10 ppm Barges FOB ARA (Platts) Futures Quotes

 

Source: CME Group, Gasum, Bloomberg, Argus Media

*An estimate for LNG FOB Risavika 

** An estimate for 10 % LBG blend FOB Risavika